August 26, 2003

If it Looks Like a Peak and Acts like Peak...

Suddenly, I'm getting a lot more questions about just why I'm bearish on housing. Two charts below show why, in graphic terms. But let's not forget the root cause of the mortgage bubble, loose money. The Fed has spawned a series of bubbles, first in the Nasdaq, later in the bond market, and all along in housing. The only question now is, "When rising long-term rates are going to slow the growth in both prices and purchases?" My prediction? Yesterday's reported record growth in existing home sales for July reflected a last rush to lock in low rates that had already begun rising by late July. But don't take my word for it...look at the charts, courtesy of the excellent researchers at SIX MILLION HOME BUYERS GET IN AT THE TOP... AND MANAGE TO LOCK IN THE FASTEST GROWTH IN PRICES 14 YEARS.


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