September 25, 2003

Two Weeks to Black Monday?

Chris Dehaemer was one of my sounding boards in Baltimore when I worked out of there. We'd pace around in the basement office shooting off ideas and arguments. He always has good ideas--and they are always provocative. So I shouldn't be too suprised at his latest one, but I thought I'd pass it on to you. Keep in mind, Chris isn't exactly a bear. He's been a good trader with his Red Zone product. Here's the note he sent me today: I've been reading a lot about the dollar crisis and looking into past post bubble markets. In 1987 the dow fell 22% in one day on a currency crisis. Snow is trying to talk down the dollar. Historically, three years after the bubble pops there has been a huge rally - which in turn gets crushed. We are in an secular bear market. This is the fist and biggest rally. The only question is whether Q3 will drive it up another notch for the ultimate death in January - or if Q3 ie. October, will be the end of this particular round of greed inspired optimism. The fundemantals of the world market are at thier worst since 1998 - the Asian devaluation. Only this time the world's strongest economy is running a half a trillion dollar 7% of GDP -trade deficiet, conducting a war and printing money at an 11% year over year rate. The dollar has been sliding for two years. Can a Black Monday be two weeks away? Yes.


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