April 18, 2004

Ned Davis is Nervous: Quote of the Day

From this week's Barron's "My underlying view is there is too much debt and there was never any buildup of savings during the recession, so there is really no pent-up demand. The consumer isn't in a position to do much. That is what all the bears say. Then I sit and look at the money supply and I see that when mortgage refinancings are booming and tax cuts or tax refunds are hitting, the money supply explodes. If you put a lot of money in people's pockets, they are going to spend it. We saw that in the middle of last year. The second half of last year was the best half since 1984, or maybe 1981, when there were tax cuts. It's a guarantee that if you give tax cuts or refunds, there will be surging growth. Is it sustainable? I don't think it is. March is going to be strong. April is going to be strong. It is going to be May or June before we know if the economy is slowing a bit and, by that time, there will have been two Fed meetings already. We've been in a green-light situation for the market since October 2002 and now we have a yellow light. The tape has not broken down enough for me to say the bear market will resume, but it is definitely flashing a yellow light."


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