January 14, 2004

Still no luck on Asia 2025

Got some good tips from readers on where to find Marshall's paper on China...especially a version at the National Defense University. However some readers have said the paper may not have been released to the public...even if parts of it have been leaked. I wonder. And I've checked with several webmasters...no response yet. Meanwhile, the plot thickens. Turns out the co-author of the report is non other than James Roche, current Secretary of the Air Force. Roche was the keynote speaker at the UAV conference I attended in Washington, DC in early December.... Why do I care about this at all? It's not so important what "I" think about the strategic relationship between the U.S. and China. But is important to understand how policymakers in both countries view each other. And the short answer to that question is, "not very kindly." What has "leaked" from Marshall's Asia 2025 report and from selected Chinese open-source papers on future warfare...is that both sides view the idea of warfare itself expanding to include, more overtly, economic and financial warfare. Obviously, this has always been true. The U.S. is the master at using the currency and trade policy (most favored nation status) as a lever in foreign policy. No surprise that China would do the same. What's worth considering is whether not this future warfare is just more intense economic competition...or competition in which the financial systems of other countries become targets in a military sense. Finding out just what China and the Pentagon have to say on that subject is the object of my research...and will give us a clue about what kind of investment world we're going to be living in....


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